Incitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 1903 posts, RR: 7 Posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8111 times:
How many years before DL/NW shuts down the entire connection operation at Narita in favor of nonstops from the US?
With all majors Asian destinations served by nonstops from the US, there will be no financial justification to base a few smaller aircraft at NRT just to fly to secondary Asian destinations like Pusan. There will be no financial justification to keep redundant services like Tokyo-Beijing when Beijing is served by multiple nonstops from the US. I believe the NRT hub will be gone in 3-4 years. DL/NW will be deploying 777LRs where needed in Asia.
Jfk777 From United States, joined Aug 2006, 2009 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8060 times:
NW has clung on to the Tokyo past like an old woman. NW should fly to NRT as a very big O & D city for them. Certainly fly some 744 to NRT but use them for nonstop to China too, HKG included. NW has a huge problem though, the only plane they have able to fly to NRT from other them PDX, SEA, and SFO is a 744.
Don't they regret not having A340's now for smaller longer range flights. NW needs a 275 passenger plane with 7500 miles range, like a 777. NRT should be served at least once daily from LAX ,SFO, PDX, SEA, HNL, MSP & DTW with JFK soon, I hope, too. Seattle to PEK via A332 & DTW to PVG with a 744 is great start but whatever happened to DTW to PEK NW used to fly? That routes looks like a winner today, They should fly it again. Every route possible to China nonstop should be flown with the DL merger and whatever is left over gets flown as a seconadry consideration. NW's refraib should be" CHINA, CHINA, CHINA" not "Narita, Narita, Narita". bring the 757's home from NRT.
Jfk777 From United States, joined Aug 2006, 2009 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7938 times:
Quoting NWAESC (Reply 3): PDX-NRT is almost all connecting traffic out of NRT. I'm not sure that flight is viable without "beyond" connections.
Well then may be Portland isn't ready for a flight to Tokyo, Delta tried it from PDX and 9/11 killed the hub. The evidence of PDX's history to Asia is well documented and sad to say, I wish it wasn't that way.
USPIT10L From United States, joined Mar 2006, 1484 posts, RR: 7 Reply 5, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7893 times:
Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 4): Well then may be Portland isn't ready for a flight to Tokyo, Delta tried it from PDX and 9/11 killed the hub. The evidence of PDX's history to Asia is well documented and sad to say, I wish it wasn't that way.
DL pulled out of PDX as a transpacific hub a year BEFORE 9/11. Their reasoning was poor financial returns and also a very tough customs port as well.
B2443 From United States, joined Jul 2004, 412 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7817 times:
Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 2): NW's refraib should be" CHINA, CHINA, CHINA" not "Narita, Narita, Narita".
They need to transform NRT (or a Chinese city such as PEK) like they are doing with AMS. Build a partnership with a Japanese/Chinese airline to do the intra-China/Asia flights, just like having KLM do Europe and Middle East. It would probably be better at PEK, because you will need the frequencies to feed the transpac traffic. NRT is limited since all the potential growth may seem to come from China. Chinese City -PEK would be more sustainable that a Chinese City - NRT (international, visa, custom, etc).
Eventually, the secondary Chinese cities will pick up, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Nanjing, Shenyang, Chongqing, etc etc. I can't imagine how NW would address those markets, certainly not by bringing 757s or 320s to NRT.
LAXintl From United States, joined May 2000, 8051 posts, RR: 11 Reply 7, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7779 times:
Customers prefer nonstop options, and a NRT hub actually means many passengers must double connect on the way to their destination -- Origin>USHub>NRT>Destination
United since pre 9/11 had begun to trim its intra-Asia spokes from Narita as more US nonstop services could be offered. UA has also downsized its flying to near all 777s at NRT today and refocused the operation on Japan O&D demand which has improved markets performance as well.
NWA for the last decade has always had a revenue deficiency in Asia compared to United primarily due its focus on large 747s and hubbing at NRT which caused the sale of lots of low yielding consolidator type revenue to fill planes. The switch to 332s has improved this, however Asia flying as a whole still continues to lag UA's performance.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
Apodino From United States, joined Apr 2005, 1584 posts, RR: 4 Reply 8, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 7417 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7): United since pre 9/11 had begun to trim its intra-Asia spokes from Narita as more US nonstop services could be offered. UA has also downsized its flying to near all 777s at NRT today and refocused the operation on Japan O&D demand which has improved markets performance as well.
NWA for the last decade has always had a revenue deficiency in Asia compared to United primarily due its focus on large 747s and hubbing at NRT which caused the sale of lots of low yielding consolidator type revenue to fill planes. The switch to 332s has improved this, however Asia flying as a whole still continues to lag UA's performance.
Also remember that UA has plenty of connection opportunities with ANA as a star alliance partner, so the need for their own metal is greatly reduced. Skyteam in Asia is primarily KE, and since their hub is ICN, NW doesn't have the connection opportunities at NRT that UA does, and also I would expect US to do well with a PHL route for this same reason, and I think its not a matter of if, but when they launch this service.
WorldTraveler From United States, joined Aug 2003, 4552 posts, RR: 17 Reply 9, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 7270 times:
You don't have any idea how valuable the rights that UA and NW holds to carry passengers beyond Japan. Yes, there will be many more nonstops between the US and other points in Asia. But there will also be plenty of revenue to be made carrying passengers from Japan to other points in Asia regardless of the amount of flow traffic that is put on the flight.
There will be DL hubs like LAX, LAX, DTW, MSP, JFK, and ATL that will support multiple nonstop flights to Asia but none will support the entire number of cities served by NW beyond Japan now - or the number of cities that could be served in the future. Cities like PDX and even cities like BOS and CVG which could see nonstop service to Japan will require lots of connections on both ends to work.
The beyond rights are very valuable and can make money with the right aircraft; the 757 has cockpit commonality with the 767 which DL has in boatloads and will likely be deployed on the Pacific. It is hard to imagine that DL can't make more money flying a 757 between cities like BKK, SIN, and HKG and Japan, regardless of how much connecting traffic is provided in Japan, than DL can make in the deeply competitive US market where fares are much lower. In Japan, some costs like flight attendants are lower than in the US.
There will also be new cities in Asia that can be connected to the NRT. As cities lose NRT service with nonstop service to the US, the slots can be used for other cities.
No, the NRT hub is not finished. it will be restructured and fewer US cities will require connection at NRT. Other US cities will gain nonstop service to Japan and other Asian cities will gain access to Japan and thus to the US.
RoseFlyer From United States, joined Feb 2004, 5085 posts, RR: 15 Reply 10, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 7224 times:
NRT is a great hub for NW. Don't forget that they do have 5th freedom rights from Japan that are leftover from when the US won WWII. They can carry passengers from NRT to throughout Asia. NW is the 3rd largest airline in NRT which is one of the if not the highest yielding markets in the world that is extremely slot pressured. They don't have great frequency, but they can fill planes to NRT not only from the US but also using Japanese traffic. The fact they use Japanese crews as well makes them plenty attractive to travelers out of NRT. Somehow NRT can support year round daily service from PDX but DTW cannot keep even a single flight to PDX in the winter. The nonstop flights to NRT allow for single stop connections to many large markets in the United States.
NW and DL still won't have a west coast airport that has adequate feed. LAX is growing for DL, but still doesn't have that much feed. SEA is turning into an important international jumping off point for NW, but the only feed they have there is from AS. NW requires double connections for most destinations, although the single connections from the airports they do fly to are convenient.
Proud Alumni of Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology - #1 Engineering College in America for 9 Years Straight!
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9): You don't have any idea how valuable the rights that UA and NW holds to carry passengers beyond Japan.
They're priceless and useless at the same time, but they're of declining use to UA and NW, as evidenced by UA's overflying Japan and NW's downgrading of flights to 757s. Neither carrier can build a successful "hub" there unless they get the local passenger, and they can't do that with their schedule (timed for US connections, not locals), and without a local partner (UA has NH, but DL/NW has zilch).
BAW716 From United States, joined Nov 2003, 1730 posts, RR: 29 Reply 12, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 7178 times:
Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 10): NRT is a great hub for NW. Don't forget that they do have 5th freedom rights from Japan that are leftover from when the US won WWII. They can carry passengers from NRT to throughout Asia. NW is the 3rd largest airline in NRT which is one of the if not the highest yielding markets in the world that is extremely slot pressured. They don't have great frequency, but they can fill planes to NRT not only from the US but also using Japanese traffic. The fact they use Japanese crews as well makes them plenty attractive to travelers out of NRT. Somehow NRT can support year round daily service from PDX but DTW cannot keep even a single flight to PDX in the winter. The nonstop flights to NRT allow for single stop connections to many large markets in the United States.
This is a very important point and RoseFlyer is dead on with it. NW is one of only two US carriers (UA being the other) that can carry 5th freedom traffic beyond Tokyo. The Tokyo franchise is one of the biggest assets that NW has at its disposal and gives it the ability to fly traffic to points in Asia that could not be ordinarily served from the US direct (not because it couldn't be done, but because the traffic base doesn't exist to justify it). Yes, I am certain that more direct service to Asia will be forthcoming as a result of the DL/NW deal. That said, the NRT franchise will allow them to fly to a large number of destinations; more economically by putting larger aircraft on the NRT flights and operating intra Asia with the 757, a DL 767 or NW A332-333, depending upon the market size). However, given the existing environment, I believe unit margin will be better by building up the NRT hub operation (in concert with Asian SkyTeam partners).
baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
WorldTraveler From United States, joined Aug 2003, 4552 posts, RR: 17 Reply 13, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 7108 times:
Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 10): NW and DL still won't have a west coast airport that has adequate feed
stick around and watch what they do with LAX.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11): They're priceless and useless at the same time, but they're of declining use to UA and NW, as evidenced by UA's overflying Japan and NW's downgrading of flights to 757s.
just because UA can't figure out how to run an airline doesn't mean that DL and NW don't recognize the value. UA has no 767s operatingin the Pacific while NW and DL have an abundance of 767s and 330s. The 777 and 747 are too large for intra-Asian flights by US carriers. the 757 can easily fly to any point in east Asia while the 767/332 can fly to just about any point on the North Pacific Rim. It is well established that UA can't un an airline but that doesn't mean other airlines don't understand the value they have in their assets.
Quoting BAW716 (Reply 12): The Tokyo franchise is one of the biggest assets that NW has at its disposal and gives it the ability to fly traffic to points in Asia that could not be ordinarily served from the US direct (not because it couldn't be done, but because the traffic base doesn't exist to justify it). Yes
which I have been saying for months, if not years.
RoseFlyer From United States, joined Feb 2004, 5085 posts, RR: 15 Reply 15, posted (2 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 7056 times:
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11): They're priceless and useless at the same time, but they're of declining use to UA and NW, as evidenced by UA's overflying Japan and NW's downgrading of flights to 757s.
UA never had the slots out of NRT to truly make a hub work like NWA does. UA also has SFO which is a good gateway to Asia. 757s are better than when NW had A320s based in NRT.
We'll see. It seems like DL wants to commit to the market, but the problem is that since it is such a huge O/D market, it's hard for any carrier to develop a fortress hub to the scale that may be needed for transpacific flights. DL has to fight UA, AA, AS and WN which means that yields will be severely depleted. They'll have to take some losses in order to keep feed for those international flights.
Pacific routes need feed. DL does well out of JFK without it being a fortress hub, but that's because the Atlantic market is far larger. It's hard to say if they can do the same out of LAX. I'm a doubter personally, but would love to see it. LAX just has so much more competition domestically than JFK especially because it isn't fighting capacity issues like the New York Airports are. Operating a hub in NRT might make sense.
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